Political Example of Word of Mouth

If you hadn't noticed, the marketing brains behind political campaigns have over the last generation become media darlings oftentimes staging second careers as enlightened authors or media pundits.

Think Dick Morris. Think George Stefanopoulos. Think Karl Rove. In Canada, we've seen the former kingmaker John Tory come out from behind the curtain and become a talented and popular politician and official leader of the opposition in our biggest province - Ontario. David Miller's surprise rise from obscurity in the polls to becoming the mayor of Toronto was as much attributed to the invention of a powerful icon of a "broom" and the metaphor of sweeping away municipal corruption than the actual principles and impressive platform of the man himself.

The fact is marketing and communications plays a pivotal role in the political mix. Perhaps one of the biggest reasons is that large popular vote swings over the course of a short campaign indicate political marketing actually works better and more fluidly than most industries. And also that political campaigning invests enormous resources (door to door marketing, localized direct mail, election signs, local rallies)  in supporting their effort with local community building and one-to-one dialogue - the key pillars of very effective word of mouth.

The effect of word of mouth in our upcoming Canadian federal election is no better evidenced than election sign distribution.  The clearest example of word of mouth in action is the distribution of signs for our fifth most popular federal party - The Green Party (with approx. 4% of last election's federal vote).

I can drive 6 or 7 neighborhoods in a row while traversing Toronto and not see the comparatively small, lime green and neon gold signs of the Green Party but then all of sudden I'll happen upon a bouquet of 4-5 over the course of one block. Are the canvassers that much better over this tight group of homes? Have they spent all their political capital in this little nook? Are the people living in these homes differ radically demographically or psychographically than the people that live one block over? Hardly.

Similar to Malcolm Gladwell's study on the dispersion rate of air conditioners in the '50s, electioneeering is all about creating a neighborhood effect. Starting with the right type of seed - a well-connected person with deep social networks, a captivating newsworthy message and a demeanour that people trust, political momentum then ripples out in interesting patterns. In Toronto,  socialist NDP signs travel linearly along main streets, Liberals leapfrog in the next concentric circle of typically middle-income earners and right wing Conservative signs propogate in deeper residential encalves. Fascinating stuff.

Unfortunately, all this will remain as compelling social dispersion and anthropological insight until the one moment a political party lines up perfectly all the political "word of mouth" dominos in the right sequence. Until that time,  I will remain another faceless a-political plebe with a potential book deal, talk show and speaker circuit session always just one campaign away.

My staunch belief is that if the Green Party could only find 5,000 of these socially gifted indivduals and powerfully motivate them as a word of mouth channel, they could change the face of election night. The math - 5,000 people bring 50 other people into the tent who because they're less vested bring a more reasoanbale 7 other people into the fold and all of a sudden they've walked away with more than half the popular vote.