Influence Ripples - To A-List or Not A-List

I caught this post on Joseph Thornley's great PR blog Pro PR discussing how viruses (or is that virii?) spread like ripples in a social media world.

In it, he refers to a post by Eric Kintz from HP who puts forward the notion that online recommendations don't spread well and that it is of paramount importance to get the A-lister blogger on your side.

His hypothesis is because at least they have a large number of first generation links in their entourage, so you can hit a lot of people by virtue of their direct contacts versus depending on a weak pass-along effect.

He's partly right. A-List bloggers that are "mega" hubs of influence are truly desirable and the weakening of a virus as it spreads is true as well.

Here's what Eric is missing:

- People Trust People They Know - everybody has a trust network in their lives/intimate circles of friends, families and colleagues who they trust more than A-list bloggers writing out of New York , Silicon Valley or L.A.  - and even though their ripples (pictures here as #3 and #4) are smaller, they are much more bonded and listened to with credibility then venturing across ripples

- the "Long Tail" effect -  although there are influencers with much smaller ripples, there are more of them - effective viruses don't spread if left to the middle circle - the true multiplier effect happens in the outer circles. For example, although they grew quickly and were incubated by a set of influencers, You Tube and Second Life did not become mainstream phenomena until people in Des Moines, Saskatoon and Nashville started to notice, use them and then told their personal networks. Another case in point, LinkedIn - a business social network gained 5 million users in its first 3 years, it will now gain it's next 5 million in 10 months. Thank you B, C, D, E, F ripples.

- The Online/Offline Effect - the online world is no doubt great at starting and spreading viruses, it's the prime reason why word of mouth and buzz are popular again as now there are tools to spread and measure what was previously difficult to expand and very tough to monitor... but recognize that more than 92% of word of mouth is offline (71% live and 21% by phone) (Keller Fay) , happening in kitchens, lunch rooms, cafes and neighborhood parties and family get-togethers across the world - what the Ripple Study doesn't measure is when a virus turns onto the gravel road and becomes an offline thing. My inkling is that these conversations are happening and they are happening disproportionately on the outer ripples away from the A-lister blogosphere.

The Takeaway
- yes A-list bloggers, very important, pursue them and try to breakthrough the clutter of other people pursuing them - I'd love Oprah to endorse my book too - it just doesn't always happen
- don't ignore your  "garden variety" neighborhood  influencer  who commands the high ground of their social strata, whether they author a blog or not, they are the  gatekeepers to main street North America and are more than likely not an A-lister
- a key miss - do not design communication simply to impact the first reader, incorporate memetic and pass along network incentives to get people to spread your stuff to others as well - done well, these tactics may be received with more impact in the outer ripples  (as support see Blair Witch's box office which didn't crest until 2 weeks into launch and didn't max out it's theatre base until a full month after launch - quality of movies aside, Snakes on a Plane could have learned something about getting to the B and C ripples)