"Companies which get misled by their own success are sure to be blind sided."Warren G. Bennis
Man, it is so tough in the connected world of technology for the top dog to stay on top. As it relates to social networking, first, it was Classmates in '95, then Six Degrees in '97, Live Journal '99, Friendster in '03, My Space in '04/05 and Facebook in '06/07. History suggests success can be fleeting.
In the current #1 vs. #2 battle being waged right now, beyond scale, Facebook has been winning most rounds:
- is has much cleaner design and directory
- it has the hegemonic established audience not the subaltern freaks
- it's not owned by Fox or any other conflicted owner
- it has open sourced its operations
- it is centred around real world communities
- as a member, it is very tough to game and fake
- it has much higher frequency of day-to-day interaction amongst its audience
- it makes better use of groups and finding people and content
- it's more search engine friendly
- it's pervasive and much better telling you stuff that's new
If they are able to dodge the bullets of progress and innovation, they'll be positioned to stay on top for awhile. But let's play a game of "what if". What are the blind spots that Facebook isn't thinking about which may eventually Friendster-ize them...
1) Mobile - there are 2.7 billion global mobile phones users in the world with expected growth and sophistication levels to continue (80% of them will have camera phones by 2010, GPS-enablement) - a cross-platform social network will develop around mobile use likely in Europe, more advanced than Dodgeball, both from an integration and user friendliness standpoint, creating the first true portable social network
2) Private branded communities - if you want to market on the big social networks, there are some obvious limitations currently on owning the data, selling stuff, promoting stuff in a competitor free environment, integrating key brand functionality and creating customized relationships with brand audiences. Firms and Brands will come to realize these restrictions and decide to get their own networks that may or may not integrate with the big social networks. With 80,000 communities, Ning has been the flagbearer for outsourcing and making brand community simple to setup for the small organization; the big brands will jump on this idea soon.
3) Companies/media taking control of communities - some of the attractive larger brands will build their own communities laden with exclusive incentives. People may exchange their attention freely in return for getting cool stuff. Imagine what a true iPod, Nike, Starbucks, Nokia or New York Times social network looks like and think about the privledged content, product, experience, gadgetry or news you could get access to.
4) Vertical-ization - My Space was popular with indie bands initially, Facebook with university students - how many other interests out there will be harnessed in building up competing social networks? Travel, sports, reading, arts, home renovation, foodies, government and politics, environment and shopping all represent interesting verticals that will expand a given social network based on an initial core group getting interested and a network capable of building open source apps and a design consistent with that passion tribe
5) Youth Vacated Segment - now that Facebook has expanded itself well beyond the college crowd and My Space has high-schooled itself, there is a burgeoning gap for another post-secondary focused social network, perhaps one built with the endorsement of the schools - think NCAA-ster - win scholarships, get tickets, become a booster within the network. Who will be the big campus winner 2 years from now when the cool kids have walked away from Facebook as yesterday's news.
6) Internationalization - perhaps you've heard of these waking giants China and India. Each will have a significant impact on where social networks go next. With My Space and Facebook generating 2/3rd of its audience within North America, they are quite narrow in their geographic focus. Expect them to expand elsewhere, others (Orkut, Bebo, Cyworld) to expand here, newcomers to launch as true international sites (my bet would be on networks that can seamlessly integrate across languages best) and lead candidates to emerge as true global networks consistent with their global web cousins in search (Google), ecommerce (eBay) and browsers (Microsoft, Mozilla)
7) Integration - I personally hate having to check what's going on in Facebook, Linked In, email, Typepad and other networks , somebody is going to crack this nut and become a true social portal able to receive updates from all comers. In addition, whoever will be able to pull off this coup and overcome non-standardrized coding and privacy issues, will also be able to link seamlessly with email management, Windows, Skype, mobile, banking, travel and graphics and storage technologies
8) Semantic-ism - the coming of web 3.0 - where computers do all the work for us. For a poor typer like myself, speech recognition will be a part of this too. Imagine talking to your social network and asking them to track the top 10 most active people on Facebook, the 50 most influential people into politics, the 100 people most likely to have consistent interests with you and having this spit back immediately and effortlessly.
9) Video - with file compression technologies lowering, video editing becoming simpler to use and more available, the new iPod war being visual media and the big media companies and producers all interested in making ancillary money on their libraries and season-long TV series - a You Tube-like social network that can embed video into their operations seamlessly without overloading their servers will be positioned well for the future.
10) Social Network E-Commerce - marry eBay with a social network and you get the ultimate shop-and -share network. There may be interesting fusion spinoff effects - think about eBay's trust rating being applied in a social network universe, think about Facebook groups being used in an eBay environment. It is an unstoppable truth- where there is money involved, there is interest.
11) Business Social Networks - at some point Linked In will say - enough with being a steadily rising rolodex of contacts, let's make ourselves a true social network and address the concern heard and felt by many Facebookers that they would like to have a business and social profile (two very different universes for most people). For the consultant, independent contractor and free agent, this will become a lifeline to finding the next gig and groups of similar interest or skill my end up congregating together, being rated and working collaboratively on projects within this environment.
Agree? disagree? What's your prediction of what will be happening to social networks in 2009 and what are the blindspots that will eventually bring the likes of My Space and Facebook down?
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